In-depth Analysis on the bye-Election

April 20th, 2007 gier Posted in MILF-PRON, Politics | No Comments »

Because we are victims of populist tendencies, the Mentera Institute of Learning Foundation for Political Research On Nationalism (MILF-PRON) have decided to publish an in-depth analysis of the Ijok bye-election. This research had been carried out by none other than our rectum rector, Tan Sri Dato’ Seri Wira Paduka Kelana Orang Besar Ir. Professor Dr. Bung Siddekq Al-Saghof (though we normally just call him dude). This is his report:

The decision by PKR to field Tan Sri Abdul Khalid Ibrahim is an inspired one, given the racial composition of the constituency. The racial breakdown of Ijok is, according to the famous online comic, 51.8% Malay, 27.7% Indian and 20.6% Chinese (which strangely amounts to 100.1% — doubtless due to some rounding error). Ostensibly, there are no “Dan Lain-lain” voting in Ijok.

Further, based on the previous two elections, the gap between the BN (MIC) candidate with the opposing candidate (PKR in 2004, DAP in 1999) are 18.2% and 28.3% respectively. In 2004, the PKR candidate was a Malay, effecting a 10.1% swing from the Indian DAP candidate of 1999. In order for PKR to win this time around, they would have to pull a further 11.9% swing to obtain a simple majority. Making the assumption that the independent candidate votes would also be highly likely to swing towards to opposition, this 11.9% is further shortened to 8.5%. Given the credentials of Khalid, an 8.5% swing is not unreachable.

In addition, being the former CEO of PNB and Guthrie, Khalid would have a certain appeal to the Indian estate workers, knowing that they could have their “old boss” back, in a much more important capacity.

Therefore, in the words of our associate, Sharizal, seterus perebus (translation: onward you boiler), it is our considered belief that the elections will be won by the BN candidate.

(MILF-PRON Political Analysis Report 01/2007/04/20 v1)